2011 Oscar Race – Mid December

Actually needed an excuse to post the new four Oscar posters, not that are great but wanted to have them here. What better excuse than a brief analysis of what has been happening with all the awards and nominations movies, directors plus actors have been collecting. Have to thank my favorite net writer for keeping the tally and if you wish to read his complete report please go here.

Best Picture

Up-to-today these are the four films that have collected wins.

The Social Network13 and 9 nominations
Winter’s Bone – 2 and 11 nominations
The King’s Speech – 1 and 12 nominations
The Ghost Writer – 1 win and 1 nomination

No wins yet, but have 5 or more nominations
Inception – 15
Black Swan – 13
127 Hours – 11
The Kids Are All Right – 9
The Fighter – 8
Toy Story – 7
True Grit – 7
The Town - 5

As you surely remember the category has 10 slots and with the exception of The Ghost Writer I believe that the 10 slots will be filled with the above films; but the actual race could be between The Social Network and The King’s Speech. Want to give a chance to The King’s Speech –even if haven’t seen it- because I need the race to be interesting as is too boring just to assume that The Social Network will win (but probably is a sure thing).

Best Director

As of today these are the seven directors with wins.

David Fincher forThe Social Network – 12 and 9 nominations
Christopher Nolan for Inception – 2 wins and 14 nominations
Darren Aronofsky for Black Swan – 2 wins and 11 nominations
Danny Boyle for 127 Hours – 1 win and 9 nominations
Roman Polansky for The Ghost Writer -1 win, 1 nomination
Gareth Edwards for Monsters – 1 win
Olivier Assayas for Carlos – 1 win

No wins yet, but have 5 or more nominations
Tom Hooper for The King’s Speech – 9
Debra Granik for Winter’s Bone – 6

I’m sure that the five slots will be filled with some of the above directors. Then is a sure thing that Fincher, Aronofsky and Hooper will get nods (well, should wait for the Director’s Guild, but is almost impossible that they don’t get nods). The other two slots are still open and of course I really wish that a woman gets one slot, so I’m hoping that Debra Granik gets a nomination.

Best Actress

Are you ready for this? Here are the nine actresses with wins.

Natalie Portman in Black Swan – 6 and 13 nominations
Jennifer Lawrence in Winter’s Bone – 4 and 13 nominations
Michelle Williams in Blue Valentine – 1 and 10 nominations
Annette Bening in The Kids Are All Right – 1 and 10 nominations
Carey Mulligan in Never Let Me Go – 1 and 3 nominations
Lesley Manville in Another Year – 1 and 2 nominations
Halle Berry – Frankie & Allie – 1 and 1 nomination
Kim Hye-Ja in Mother – 1
Sylvie Testud in Lourdes – 1

Some surprises in the above list, isn’t? Here are the actresses with 5 or more nominations
Nicole Kidman in Rabbit Hole – 10
Noomi Rapace in The Girl With The Dragon Tattoo – 5

I’m (almost) sure that four slots are in the above list; since we already know the nominations from SAG we know that Hilary Swank that has only one nomination (SAG) came back to be considered to fill the fifth and last slot in this category and that will be hard for Michelle Williams to fill it. My four (almost) sure are Portman, Lawrence, Bening and Kidman, still have no clear idea who could fill the fifth.

Best Actor

The best news for me that believe Colin Firth should have gotten the Oscar last year are in this category. Here are the six actors with wins.

Colin Firth in The King’s Speech – 7 and 12 nominations
James Franco in 127 Hours – 4 and 14 nominations
Jesse Eisenberg in The Social Network – 3 and 12 nominations
Mark Wahlberg in The Fighter – 1 and 1 nomination
Ewan McGregor in The Ghost Writer – 1 and 1 nomination
Colin Farrel in Ondine – 1

Here are the actors with 5 or more nominations
Jeff Bridges in True Grit – 9
Robert Duvall in Get Low – 7
Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine – 5

For me this is the most difficult category not only because haven’t seen most of the films but also because besides my strong wish for Colin Firth, I’m not sure who else will be nominated. Nevertheless if we review what their peers at SAG honored, most likely Eisenberg and Franco will get a nod and Bridges plus Duvall have become possibilities above Wahlberg and Ryan Gosling.

Surely you noticed that the most dispersed category is the Best Actress where more actresses have been honored with wins.  Somehow there is the possibility that we get surprises when Oscar announces their nominees, as we know that 2010 was an excellent year for great roles performed by great actresses.

As of this moment more critics are announcing their nominations and next Sunday we will learn the Satellite Awards winners but I sense that odds will not change much from what we have reviewed until today. Hopefully January 2011 will bring not only great film festivals but also more interesting winners to make the Oscar race less predictable.

As you can see in the above pictures, this year Oscar posters look really “uninspired” and some are complaining that last year presenters were in the posters and question why they’re not in these ones, especially when Anne Hathaway and James Franco are more nice to look at than Alec Baldwin and Steve Martin.

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